We bring you the Best of Web links: Next Bear Market, The Uncounted, The Bully and The Buddhist, Hong Kong, AI Reboot.
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The Next Bear Market
Enjoy the market ride. But make no mistake the next downturn will come. It is not a matter of if but when. And when it does, expect all these things to happen…How this blogger keep coming up with this stuff is, well…some people have talent! And I like to bring you quality stuff around here. Say no to moronic content designed to sell you in every post found in so many other blogs!
…someone will become a hero. A pundit, portfolio manager or resident doomsayer will “call” the crash and nail the timing. It will be mostly luck but will likely lead to a number of TV appearances, speaking gigs, and maybe a book deal or two.
…your favorite pundit won’t be able to save you from making irrational decisions.
…there will be bargains in the market but it will never feel like the right time to pull the trigger and buy.
…it will feel like the selling is never going to come to an end.
…you’ll be kicking yourself for not holding more cash or bonds.
…some asset class or strategy will perform really well and many investors will pile into those funds (after the fact, of course).
….everyone will start paying attention to the markets again.
…no one will be able to tell you whether it will be a short downturn with a quick snapback rally or a long drawn-out process that turns painful.
…investors will make short-term decisions with long-term capital at stake.
…financial advisors will use the Mike Tyson “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face” line on multiple occasions.
…money managers will be obsessively quoting Warren Buffett in their quarterly letters.
…you’ll trick yourself into believing you should have seen the downdraft coming.
…people will start researching black swan funds.
…you’ll be convinced that a 20% loss will turn into a 30% loss, a 30% loss will turn into a 40% loss and a 40% loss will turn into the Great Depression.
…investors will feel dumber than they really are (just as right now we feel smarter than we really are in a bull market).
…people won’t need investment advice — they’ll need a psychologist.
…some people will definitely panic.
The Uncounted
Thanks to the few media souls for investigating the tough subjects and bringing us real news. This is gut wrenching. We took away this guy’s family in the name of the world on terror. It appears many more innocent have been sacrificed. Look, I get it. There is a war going on and the opposing side are phucking cold blood killer psychos. Mistakes happen.
But it appears a lot more than just isolated mistakes in this case. And that is super sad. But the main point I wanted to make was that if we had not gone in there in the first place looking for “weapons of mass destruction” (remember that pathetic joke of an excuse?) a lot of this shit we unleashed may have never happened…I better stop. Just a great piece of investigative journalism, read it with an open mind and make your own judgment.
The Bully and The Buddhist
The author was tormented by the class bully as a kid. Only to track him down years later and discover he had become a gentle soul devoted to Buddhism. What an amazing and touching story this is!
I had a run in with the class bully as a kid. Fourth grade I snapped and beat the crap out of him, he never did any more bully crap, I became a hero. But my fingers in my right hand hurt like hell for days and I kept silent to show I was tough. Anyways, I never fought anyone else after that one time. So I am 1-0 in my career. Or, to make a bit more fun out of this, I became a lover and not a fighter woohoo!
Yes you can change. For the better. We all can…
Hong Kong From Drones
It is an 8.01 minute clip. Dim the lights, have your favorite drink, put up your feet on your desk, and push play…
You are welcome.
#MustClick
Reboot for the AI Revolution
If you are going to read one thing about AI, make it this one! I guarantee that you will thank me.
To make use of the new opportunities, people will need radical, lifelong retraining. The AI revolution won’t be a single event after which the job market and the educational system will settle into a new equilibrium. Rather, it will be a cascade of ever-bigger disruptions. Even today, few employees expect to work in the same job for their entire life (see go.nature.com/2ymdvjs). By 2050, not just the idea of ‘a job for life’, but even the idea of ‘a profession for life’ might seem antediluvian. It will become increasingly difficult to know what to teach schoolchildren and university students.
Human psychology, too, might turn out to be a key hurdle. Change is always stressful. Already we face an epidemic of stress and anxiety (see go.nature.com/2z96s57). As the volatility of the job market and of individual careers increases, we may wonder whether everyone will have the emotional stamina necessary for a life of constant flux. We may need more-effective stress-reduction techniques — ranging from drugs through neurofeedback to meditation — to cope.
Creating new jobs might prove easier than retraining people to fill them. A huge useless class might appear, owing to both an absolute lack of jobs and a lack of relevant education and mental flexibility.
The challenges posed in the twenty-first century by the merger of infotech and biotech are arguably bigger than those thrown up by steam engines, railways, electricity and fossil fuels. Given the immense destructive power of our modern civilization, we cannot afford more failed models, world wars and bloody revolutions. We have to do better this time.
And I leave you with this…Dogs snap toooooo!
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20% cash at all times…. it’s called a “margin of safety”
Also, first
“It will become increasingly difficult to know what to teach schoolchildren and university students.”
This is something I’ve been thinking about lately: what career advice can you give to kids in high school and college these days? Once upon a time you could say things like “Get a job with IBM” or “go to law school” but not so much now. Even med school looks shaky as an option given everything going on with health care.
Machine learning and AI. => Applied math.
The robots will take over those jobs as well.
Med schools are unfortunately pretty safe. Most of those jobs could be better done by robots. Robots will be better at following SOP, incorporate medial history and give unbiased opinions/facts.
There should be no need for primary care physicians nor radiologists. But we like to interact with humans even if we have to wait until February to see the doctor.
Imo, unless you are going into a specialty, school is pointless. You can learn so much on the internet and it is so much more advanced than the school systems. Our educational system is on a decline and the lack of funding doesn’t help. Schooling is slow, you can learn specific things on your own time without going through a “9-5” model of schooling. The 9-5 concept is an outdated model and most people don’t want that anymore.
I’d tell kids to look into technology, computers, learn to self-motivate, become your own boss, create your own businesses (specifically in e-commerce), etc. Majority of people are buying their things online, while physical retail stores are declining. Why run a physical location and pay this overhead, when you can run it online which is cheaper? Learn a skill or passion and teach that via an online platform where you can get paid for that, etc. Have multiple online streams and ways to get money because the one way of a 9-5 is crazy to depend your life on. We tell young kids to diversify their investments, but we don’t tell them that they can diversify the jobs they have and the income streams. It is important to understand that the current models are no longer sustainable and if you don’t want to get left behind, you need to adapt and start teaching yourself these skills, especially if you have 30 years or more to “retire.”
“Majority of people are buying their things online, while physical retail stores are declining. Why run a physical location and pay this overhead, when you can run it online which is cheaper?”
Because most will be eaten alive by Amazon. Only niche products can compete with Amazon.
“Learn a skill or passion and teach that via an online platform where you can get paid for that, etc”
I take classes at Coursera for (almost) FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE. With that said, why are college degrees so expensive? 20+ years ago, professors/instructors thought they would be replaced by online courses. I took my first online class 25+ years ago.
College degrees are a joke unless it is in a speciality. If you get into debt over an “education,” I think you are doing it wrong. Then you have to slave at a 9-5, while trying to pay that debt off for 20+ years while barely earning enough (if you are lucky). That type of model is what I would tell people to get away from.
As for Amazon, you would be surprised how many people would rather shop online whether or not they can get it at the store. It is more than niche and competitive products. It is also about convenience and laziness too. Why waste gas, go and try to get help in a store or talk to an uninformed worker when you can just buy your stuff online and avoid all that? Why have forced meaningless conversations you don’t have to have with people in stores, etc. There is an array of things at play here and it is shifing the culture. It’s like anything else, adapt or get stepped on. No different than having to adapt to the “hobby” and the rules are constantly changing. We live in a time where technology has rapidly outgrown our ability to keep up, to some degree.
College is just such a ripoff anymore – the skyrocketing tuition just makes it much harder to justify in so many cases. Even when I graduated (1996) it had already gotten to be so pricey. There needs to be some sort of a total re-think of our educational and career paradigms.
Wife and I do very little shopping in person these days. I hate crowds, hate people. And then wandering around the store trying to figure out where the store product placement people have decided to place things. Much easier to buy online.
Amazon is in the process of destroying traditional B&M retail. Millions of jobs have been lost.
Fascinating discussion, thank you!
University of Detroit today announced a 30% tuition DECREASE!
I see the opportunities my kid is presented with at the University of Michigan and I must admit I don’t whine as much as I should for paying out all the dough…
No doubt about it, there is an epic change underway…
The hobby is boring FQF had it right with the post about reduced MS.
I’ve been a college professor for the past 3 years at a flagship university in the Midwest.
There are a couple of problems with college tuition/budget/spending:
1) State funding for education has decreased a LOT over time. These are supposed to be phucking public universities and our state has provided a ridiculous 10-15% of the total budget. This leaves universities with trimming their budget (not always a bad thing), raising tuition, and asking faculty to bring in tons of money in grants (which is incredibly difficult).
2) Bloated administration. There are tons of idiot administrators who do not do anything. The faculty are underpaid and overworked, while these idiot administrators are getting paid 3-4 times the salary of an assistant professor to say dumb stuff all day long and have meetings about future meetings.
3) Ridiculous spending on college amenities and college sports. Don’t get me started on these sports coaches who are getting paid much more than university presidents. I get that usually the athletic department has its own budget, but an assistant linebacker coach should not be getting paid a couple hundred thousand dollars a year… Also, universities are in an arms race about building new buildings/doors/and other crap like that. It’s unbelievable. They are always recruiting new students and the idiot presidents and chancellors only care about increasing enrollments….
Thanks for taking the time, lots of truth in your comment.
I am not into college sports. It is ridiculous all the money spent on them, it is supppsed to be about education!
Walking around Ann Arbor u may get hit by construction of another UofM building…it is insane.
Hey, is GringoLoco still hanging out here? Wondering if he has any opinions on the Holiday Inn Managua Convention Center.
I think he gets out of jail in Feb. 2018
The Bot is back! Mason is in Hell. Good morning!
The still undefeated Buzzer.
Whatever happened to:
GringoLoco
harvson
Steve
Mike
Kumar
Forgetting anyone?
BlueCat
Ingy
TheHorneyTraveler
The Miles Professor
Grant
Leana
Drew’s Wife
The guy who wrote a Portland Blog (forgot his name)
Rene’s Alias
How about a list of those who just won’t go away and leave TBB alone
Ramsey
What was Rene’s alias name?
Really surprised Ingy hasn’t graced us with his presence lately
Oh yea where is Bluecat?
Rumor is that HorneyTraveler is still around 🙂
The Miles Professor had a good short run. And then vanished. Her sister is going to the University of Michigan, I offered to get together next time she visits. I think she is mentally disturbed by my rants against her blog 🙂
Drew’s wife is a sweetheart. Hasn’t stopped by in a long while, must be busy negotiating financing with big wigs.
The Portland blog, the “I never click on affiliate links” dude, delivered some epic TBB beating comments around here. Missed those days.
There is a Twitter account from a lady who all she does is RTs Rene’s tweets. WTF to inifnity! I bet all her bills are paid too lol.
Ingy is still reading. And amazingly holding back, something I am shocked about. I think it shows admittance of defeat, how wrong he was about my blog all these years, how I still have a platform and his legacy is a super sad blog… #willhecomeoutnow?
Grant is busy slowly becoming a worthy Titan. Now sends Shelli (drinking coffee) to say hi sometimes.
I don’t think Leana ever commented here. Can’t believe she is still blogging, more stubborn than me!
I like Carrie.
Wish her husband would get back to his blog.
you really wondering where people went? simple answer there. this blog lost the respect of people who were supporters. it’s your own fault.
Thank you anonymous for the support.
Read on the internet so I know it has to be true
DansDeals is changing it’s name to
Amazon Prime Members: 48 Count Quaker Instant Oatmeal Variety Pack For $7.01-$8.09 Shipped Via Subscribe And Save Deals
add to above TBB MISSING IN ACTION list
the handsome Brian Cohen
It is Black Friday Cyber Monday time and DansDeals is just way out of control again….My Feedly is overloaded again!
Epic TPG takedown tomorrow, who said TBB is missing in action dude?
Oh yeah, Brian has not been spotted here lately too.
It will be interesting to see how the airlines and travel industry react to the next bear market and/or airline-specific market impact due to whatever the cause may be. There may come a time when loyalty programs improve a bit to try and compensate for a downturn. It probably will never return to the glory days due to the consolidation in the airline industry, but something will change. Or maybe I’m just smoking crack.
Like a revAAluation where they go back to the 2014 award chart and add stopovers on partners? Then my 300k miles could be used for more than one trip!
It will definitely be good for the hobby. I have no doubt about that. But, in comparison, it will be slim pickings. The golden days are gone….
Hey, anyone wanna do a 250k spend on a Delta card? Woohoo!!!!!
I swear, that Matthew dude of Live and Let’s Fly must have a pic of Gary Leff in his bedroom…yikes!
Masturbation or Self-Gratification? Penetrating the Air France Controversy
WTF!
I shudder to think at what sort of circle-jerks go on behind closed doors there. They sure have quite the mutual-adulation club going.
Clicks have vanished around here…
Time to pull a Rene move? You know, my bills have been paid, well, ever since I had any bwahahahaha