Another TBB post featuring the most eclectic links around the web such as the mega backdoor Roth IRA technique for the few, crypto banks are not your friend, how Google algorithms inflict pain, how I now embrace slow travel mode now, more sensible personal finance advice, comparing labor productivity levels in different countries, more ponzi schemes from grifters, how Assad in Syria became a drug dealer, the World History Encyclopedia, the coldest place on Earth, unknown kingdoms and of course always all of the most important developments in the crazy world of miles and points at the lower half of the post. Enjoy the weekend!
TBB Blog Mission: To Educate. Entertain. Inspire. In That Order!
This blog started way back in 2012 focusing on my crazy hobby addiction of traveling with frequent flyer miles, hotel and bank points. It has since evolved to curated posts featuring the best web content along with my commentary.
This is a one man labor of love operation, enjoy it while it lasts.
BLOG HOUSEKEEPING
I am back!
PERSONAL FINANCE
Amidst a mother of all bull markets, it is better to try to keep our emotions in check. As you may find yourself sometimes willing to go way far out on the risk scale and, well, going for it. Well, this article is for you then: Don’t bet on it.
Makes two points:
1) Don’t be delusional.
This is an opportune moment to remind you why most objective (meaning, they don’t get paid to convince you otherwise) professionals recommend investing mostly in broadly diversified index funds rather than trying to win big on concentrated bets or funky strategies. Look at the charts below from S&P Global (the company behind the S&P 500 Index). It shows that even when a fund manager whose whole job it is to pick stocks has good performance, there’s a very good chance they won’t be able to repeat that good performance the following year.
Below is a more detailed table, showing that of all the top 25% actively managed mutual funds for the twelve months ending 2019, not a single one of them remained in the top 25% by the end of 2023.
Source: S&P Global
Wait, there is more!
The crazy thing is that most published performance numbers tend to ignore survivorship bias, meaning the numbers would look even worse once you realize that nearly 30% of the worst performing funds in any given year end up excluded from most statistics, because they tend to either get merged with other funds or completely liquidated at some point over the following five years.
2) Have a backup plan
This is different for everybody. Because, we are all different. It may include a hefty amount of liquid cash to get you through a time period when all hell breaks loose (these days is definitely NOT that time period). Some may bury gold bars in their back yard or have stacks of guns and ammo, maybe even a bunker lol. But every backup plan should start with a diversified investment portfolio. If you do not have any investments that suck, you are likely not properly diversified.
The more optionality and flexibility you can build into your financial framework, the better.
1) Employees max out the allowable contributions in their company 401(k) — which the IRS recently announced would be $23,500 for 2025, with workers ages 50 and older getting an extra $7,500 in catch-up contributions.
2) They direct an additional share of their paychecks to go into their 401(k) as after-tax contributions.
3) They immediately convert those after-tax contributions to Roth status (which some plans let you do automatically), so they can grow tax-free and eventually be withdrawn tax-free in retirement.
Of course, only the highly paid can do this while most struggle to even save enough in their 401(k) plans to get the whole company match. This will need to be addressed at some point by the legislators. Until then, I direct my clients to go all in as long as this baby lasts. I actually think in order to pay for more tax cuts the 401(k) plans and the tax breaks that come with them may not survive. We’ll see what happens…
Before you start screaming how unfair this is (and it is), please see this:
While growing in popularity, usage of this strategy remains rare for a number of reasons. On the employer side, only a small share of 401(k) plans offer all of the mechanisms to do a mega-backdoor Roth: a Roth option, the ability to make after-tax contributions, and the ability to convert those dollars to a Roth. At Fidelity, only 10% of 401(k) plans can do all three, noted Mike Shamrell, vice president of thought leadership at Fidelity. “It’s not super prevalent,” Shamrell told MarketWatch.
Why is the US doing so much better than the rest of the world? Well, maybe it just comes down to this. Graph below found here.
SCAMS/CRYPTO/AI/TECH
We start out with two sources I always read: First, the latest newsletter by Molly White: Issue 71 – (Crypto) banks are not your friends. It singles out that jackass who ran Celsius and used to lie how traditional banks are thieves and you should move your money to Celcius and, well, no surprise he pleaded guilty and going to spend some time in prison. I mean, we have seen some shady characters in the crypto world, but this guy was on another level:
Mashinsky, who engaged directly with customers via weekly video “ask me anything” sessions and even one-on-one phone calls, was viewed more as a trusted friend or financial adviser by many, who really believed him when he said that he wanted everyone to be able to grow wealthy together using his platform, rather than lose money to banks and other financial institutions that he portrayed as the enemy.
Others didn’t make assumptions, but instead relied on Mashinsky’s own promises that the company held a $750 million insurance policy for its deposits, and that it didn’t engage in unsecured lending — both of which turned out to be lies. They believed Mashinsky when he said it was impossible for customers to lose their deposits.
And I always scan the monthly roundups in The Ponzi Scheme Blog to marvel at how gullible people fall for scammers every day, be careful out there! This is the November 2024 Roundup. About half belong to crypto scams of course. Some entries that stand out smh:
The scheme promised a 6% monthly return for 12 months, equaling a 72% annual return, and targeted Cameroonian and Nigerian communities.
Betancourt promised returns of 24% to 120% and brought in $66 million from over 600 investors.
Victims were promised 30% to 40% returns over one or two years.
…a scheme that promised guaranteed returns of 12.5% to 325% from the purchase of contracts for trucking services. The scheme targeted the Haitian-American community.
Instead of using the funds for restaurants and other businesses as promised, he used the funds for a home, real estate, and an $8 million private airplane.
The pipeline from viral social-media star, to podcaster, to questionable crypto launch remains robust. [Indeed. And how sad]
This blog is not going to blog itself. I rely on my readers helping it grow as I don’t have time to do any promotion/marketing. Which leaves the content clean of intrusive sponsoring posts and stupid ads and stuff like that.
You like my blog? Send a link to someone please!
ODDZ & ENDZ
Captagon? I had no idea about this drug. And this New Yorker story blew me away: How Syria Became the Middle East’s Drug Dealer. Bashar al-Assad has propped up his regime by exploiting the Middle East’s love of an amphetamine called captagon. Hopefully, this will be addressed with Assad gone. And good luck with that.
Wonderful resource: World History Encyclopedia. If only people spent time here scrolling away instead of TikTok smh.
This short 3.46 mins film is absolutely gorgeous: Johanna Under the Ice. Johanna Nordblad is a free diver who specializes in cold water dives. After being injured in a biking accident, her recovery involved ice water baths and she developed an interest in cold water. This is exactly what you will never ever see me attempt lol. Also, loved this quote below but, again, not for me you guys:
There is no place for fear, no place for panic, no place for mistakes. Under the ice, you need total control of the place, the time, and to trust yourself completely.
This explains why people are not finding my blog. And a wide media problem we are all facing that explains a lot of shit that has happened recently. The Death of Authentic Travel Content? How Google’s Decimated Our Travel Publication. I keep preaching here, PLEASE support online media outlets you want them to stick around. Because it is so hard staying alive, I am shocked this blog has been alive for 12+ years. I can assure you it is not the money! And the other thing I can assure you is that my blog is authentic AF! Or, as the author says below after experiencing a 97% drop in traffic!
I also want to stress the importance of supporting independent creators who focus solely on providing you with one thing: value, information, and first-hand perspectives.
It is just brutal out there:
Google’s travel features (like Google Travel, Hotel Search, etc.) have reduced organic traffic to travel sites by an estimated 40%
Independent travel blogs have seen an average traffic decline of 55% since 2022
The average cost to produce original travel content has increased by 45%, while ad revenue has decreased by 60%
As I am typing this, we have snow coming down outside in Ann Arbor, Michigan. And there is a snow weather alert. Maybe I should have stayed back in Thailand. Anyway, can you imagine living at the coldest place on earth? ‘Pole of Cold’: life in the coldest inhabited village on Earth – photo essay. The Siberian republic of Sakha in the Russian far east is one the coldest inhabited regions in the world. The photojournalist Natalya Saprunova spent almost two months documenting the daily lives of the people in the community of Oymyakon.
There are several goofy “independent” nations/kingdoms/whatever out there we have blogged about here many times. You know, the Principality of Sealand and Slowjamastan. But this article lists many others and, oh boy, there are some real weirdo characters out there woohoo: An Insider’s Guide to the Unknown Kingdoms. Léo Delafontaine estimates there are more than 400 self-proclaimed pirate entities in the world with national anthems, flags, passports, currencies, militaries, laws, and of course, some interesting leaders. Like, check out this dude who calls himself King Montague who rules over the Kingdom of Calsahara lol.
The Kingdom of Calsahara was founded on 24 November 2009 on a barren tract of land a few miles south of the unincorporated community of California Valley, California. Calsahara’s absolute ruler, King Montague, a seasoned micronationalist in his own right, has already established established friendly liaisons with the leaders of numerous countries including Molossia. Calsahara calls itself an “Enlightened Monarchy,” but in practice is just another absolute dictatorship.
This blog started with a focus on miles and points and travel. It has evolved since then. Everything below deals with the hobby of collecting frequent flyer miles and points and maximizing your travel experiences. If you are not interested, you can stop here, thank you.
We have a lot to cover, fasten your seat belts!
It is amazing how much the airline world has changed in recent years. We went from low cost airlines like Spirit going bankrupt after being the envy of the legacy airlines. And we went from eliminating first class seats to everything luxury coming back in vogue: The Airline Industry’s Biggest Winners Are Betting You’ll Pay to Fly in Style. United and Delta dominate industry profits by promoting premium travel options like carved up cabins and luxe lounges. And this quote below could not have come from anyone else other than this guy lol.
“The more you pay, the more you get” – Delta President Glen Hauenstein
If your elite upgrades are harder to come by, it is because airlines are selling the seats up front! It boggles the mind there are still blogs blogging about mileage runs smh.
We were all surprised to see this: American Express Business Platinum Adds $200 In Hilton Credits ($50/Quarter). I mean, it is a positive change. But, dang it, one more coupon thingie to track! So, I did not see any blogger say anything if this works the same as the Amex Surpass cards. You know, buying a $50 Hilton gift card for $51.95 and then dealing with all the hassle at the Hilton property to use them gift cards. Be the data point we all need 🙂 And I sure hope it does not replace the $400 Dell annual benefit post June 2025!
This company has the absolute worst restriction, you get one shot. Like, one credit card from them. EVER, WTF! Cardless Avianca Cards – Increased 120,000 Mile Bonus. Anyway, the 120k got my attention but then it was followed by Carldless and Avianca, nope. Because Avianca’s customer service can be hell, it keeps selling miles (and then devaluing right after) and then it just keeps taking: The sad state of Avianca LifeMiles mixed-cabin awards.
Interesting how American Airlines is not changing its Aadvantage program, especially not messing with elite tiers. Even making super tiny improvement at the edges, such as adding a few additional lifetime elite status thresholds (to improve its still inferior lifetime elite status program feature), adding more time to use elite systemwide upgrades (which can be meaningful for elites) and giving member the option to burn miles on food and drinks (don’t).
I get into my action items below after this from your sponsor, just kidding! Don’t give up reading now, there is more below.
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I am still settling down after our special trip to Thailand and Malaysia. So glad our kids could join us, maybe we make this family Thanksgiving abroad an annual tradition. I have noticed how much I have changed when it comes to my travel patterns. I used to be very detailed in my trip planning. Well, I still did that with all the airfare and lodging of course. But as far as doing things on the ground, I am leaning towards slow travel now. No detailed daily itineraries anymore. Maybe I have come to terms with myself that there will never be enough time to see/do everything so might as well take it easy and enjoy doing things as they come, you know, be more spontaneous and enjoy the moment. Maybe it is aging? Lol.
I have now burned over 2 Million miles/points year to date. Which was a goal of mine. And I still have over 4 million miles/points in the bank. And I have been taking it slow in going for new travel rewards credit cards. Just allowing some time for Chase 5/24 timelines to relax/soften a bit. And trying also to simplify my life going forward. By avoiding adding new banks in the mix, letting my two kids go off on their own and not continue spotting them more miles and just trying to keep it all manageable so I can continue to bring you this blog. It makes absolutely no sense $ wise but I guess I enjoy reading the few positive feedback comments/emails from readers and the few $ that come in to keep this baby as a business which allows me to deduct lots of things, most importantly, credit card annual fees #winning.
I am going to add to my Excel spreadsheet keeping track of my miles/points by adding room to track all my credit card credits (Amex Hilton Surpass, Amex Business Platinum, Capital One Venture X) and the spending requirement to earn free nights ($15k for personal Hyatt Visa, $15k for Amex Hilton Surpass). It’s not getting easier to travel for free you guys. This is the main reason I have avoided adding to the mix an Amex Gold type card, just don’t want to be tracking tiny credits every month for it. First world problems.
Loving Thailand and will likely make this an annual trip and keep exploring new places. Maybe next year we can check out Koh Samui and/or Krabi and possibly Chiang Mai. With so many Category 1 Hyatts in the country it should really not be that difficult to requalify as World of Hyatt Globalist elite. Then again, at this time, I have no trips set up for 2025, which is really strange. I need to sit down and figure some things out. As in when to visit my mother in Greece, look to get my two nieces from Greece to visit the US in August, see whether we can manage to visit Greece to attend my nephew’s wedding, decide on which industry conferences I will attend, etc. And coordinate all that with my wife’s vacation and I also need to take more steps to do my day job fully remotely ( I still have three pieces of software I use in my desktop, yeah, I am old school, I need to step up). Maybe this is the year I just book things at the last moment as I got more comfortable doing this in 2024.
Speaking of Thailand and Category 1 properties, a brand new Hyatt Place opened there last week! And it looks so nice too: Hyatt Place Bangkok Sukhumvit 1. If you visit it please let us know how you liked it, thanks.
We have had kind of a quiet time as far as bigly travel rewards credit card offers lately are concerned. But I am itching to go for more, maybe in early January. I missed that 250,000 no lifetime offer for an Amex Gold card as I was in Thailand and by the time I got around to it it vanished, boo. At the same time, with continued devaluations and bank restrictions, sometimes I feel like, screw it, cancel them all but a few cash back cards and just pound them and then use the points to book travel on the bank portals. And don’t sweat much about keeping travel costs to a minimum. Instead, save the time and aggravation of continued award searches, step up and pay sometimes and move on and enjoy life. Hmm, sign of maturing/aging again? 🙂
Love the satire from the Pure Michigan team at YouTube: A Lion’s Christmas. Must click if you are from Michigan, guaranteed LOL.
We decided to keep our New York trips for the holidays.
So, it has now been more than a year since my last Marathon in Chicago, which was the last time I ran. The search for recovery and cure continues. And it has been baffling. I do get temporary relief from foot massages and hot water soaking. But it never lasts. And the sensations/pain are totally random. After cortisone shots, continued resting, neurologists, MRIs and XRays, physical therapy, custom orthotics…there has been no lasting improvement. My physical therapist now wants me to see an orthopedic doc and get a much stronger MRI. And my orthotics guy mentioned I may have “idiopathic peripheral neuropathy” which I researched online and I think he may be right! My wife and the other friends who ran the 2024 Marine Corps Marathon together a few months ago all entered the 2025 Chicago Marathon lottery but none won. And I am telling her maybe it is time to lay off the full marathons, just too much pounding on the body. Which I certainly did while going out all out training for the 2024 Chicago Marathon which I ended up running injured and, in retrospect, was certainly one of those things I should not have done. Oh well, it is what it is. All I want to do right now is get back to jogging and these feet sensations and slight pain sometimes to stop. #Developing
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Greetings from Bangkok. Staying at the GH Erawan and being very well treated due to husband’s Globalist status. I have my eye on that HP for a stay in early January so will report back. Be very careful about pushing through injuries because who knows what the future consequences will be. Husband is only 62 but will be having a knee replacement in 2025 after having an ankle replacement in 2020 due to the follies of his youth. It’s just not worth putting your body through the trauma to get a shiny medal that really means nothing.
Whew! You must not sleep to be able to put all this together for us to enjoy! Or type incredibly fast! Maybe you are actually A.I.? Haha!
Yeah so many people fall for those scams and get taken badly. Greed and stupidity go hand in hand, if you ask me. I feel sorry for some of them but then I also think that people trying to get more than they should end up punishing themselves, in a way.
Gonna be reading this blog post all weekend as time allows. Good work! Kinda busy planning (finally!) my next and likely last big Europe trip! First fly to DC and visit my daughter and family, then on to Rome. That’s all so far but 2 flights, one of them first class and 7 nights hotel, shuttle bus from home to Seatac and I am out $367 so far is all. I am good with that! No return flights planned yet and not sure where all I will go once I get to Europe, either. It’s ok to not have everything planned ahead! Might even do a few weeks in language school as I have been wanting to do that again. Who knows!
Good morning Buzz,
Thanks for this post, always greatly appreciated.
Take it easy on yourself and good luck with the healing process.
Have a great weekend
Thanks for the comments, got tied up today, including a nap that was supposed to be ten minutes but turned out to be 4 hours long lol. Will respond sometime on Saturday I hope.
@ Vicky: How is the GH Erawan? Compared to the HR? Thanks for the advice on the medical front, I learned my lesson. Kind of late. Not giving up on running again but, well, it’s not looking good right now.
@ DML: Yeah, I should have stuck with that low cost ETF(jogging) instead of going Yolo on that leveraged triple option (PR in Chicago marathon).
@ Carl: I am not AI 🙂 The Italy trip sounds very cool to me. Yeah, this one was on the long side…again.
@ David: Yeah, I need to take it easy. Doing more research, got me compression socks, B12 vitamins, bags of Epsom salt and a cream. And will now walk 30 minutes at a slow pace on top of regular cardio and weights. MRI of my feet and ortho doc appt in January. I think going all out training for the Chicago Marathon training last year damaged some nerves in my feet. Anyway, been kind of eye opening researching online. Our bodies are so weird…
Greetings from Bangkok. Staying at the GH Erawan and being very well treated due to husband’s Globalist status. I have my eye on that HP for a stay in early January so will report back. Be very careful about pushing through injuries because who knows what the future consequences will be. Husband is only 62 but will be having a knee replacement in 2025 after having an ankle replacement in 2020 due to the follies of his youth. It’s just not worth putting your body through the trauma to get a shiny medal that really means nothing.
Thanks for this massive post! And for the videos on the trip.
Vicky is right about being careful. Think of exercise in finance terms and ask what’s the equivalent of a no load index fund.
Whew! You must not sleep to be able to put all this together for us to enjoy! Or type incredibly fast! Maybe you are actually A.I.? Haha!
Yeah so many people fall for those scams and get taken badly. Greed and stupidity go hand in hand, if you ask me. I feel sorry for some of them but then I also think that people trying to get more than they should end up punishing themselves, in a way.
Gonna be reading this blog post all weekend as time allows. Good work! Kinda busy planning (finally!) my next and likely last big Europe trip! First fly to DC and visit my daughter and family, then on to Rome. That’s all so far but 2 flights, one of them first class and 7 nights hotel, shuttle bus from home to Seatac and I am out $367 so far is all. I am good with that! No return flights planned yet and not sure where all I will go once I get to Europe, either. It’s ok to not have everything planned ahead! Might even do a few weeks in language school as I have been wanting to do that again. Who knows!
Thanks for the blog post! This one’s a humdinger!
Good morning Buzz,
Thanks for this post, always greatly appreciated.
Take it easy on yourself and good luck with the healing process.
Have a great weekend
TBB is back baby!!!
Regarding independent high-quality sites that are getting killed by Google, this picture from Reddit comes to mind: https://www.reddit.com/r/Wellthatsucks/comments/1d3zgdw/googling_stuff_then_vs_now/
Thanks for the comments, got tied up today, including a nap that was supposed to be ten minutes but turned out to be 4 hours long lol. Will respond sometime on Saturday I hope.
@ Vicky: How is the GH Erawan? Compared to the HR? Thanks for the advice on the medical front, I learned my lesson. Kind of late. Not giving up on running again but, well, it’s not looking good right now.
@ DML: Yeah, I should have stuck with that low cost ETF(jogging) instead of going Yolo on that leveraged triple option (PR in Chicago marathon).
@ Carl: I am not AI 🙂 The Italy trip sounds very cool to me. Yeah, this one was on the long side…again.
@ David: Yeah, I need to take it easy. Doing more research, got me compression socks, B12 vitamins, bags of Epsom salt and a cream. And will now walk 30 minutes at a slow pace on top of regular cardio and weights. MRI of my feet and ortho doc appt in January. I think going all out training for the Chicago Marathon training last year damaged some nerves in my feet. Anyway, been kind of eye opening researching online. Our bodies are so weird…
@ Nick: That pic is so 100% on.
Great stuff as always ,George.
I could only find 2 Cat 1 Hyatts in Thailand. Maybe I read your post wrong?
Lots more reading to do. Thanks again .
Meant to say Thailand and Malaysia, sorry.