Another TBB Tuesday Best Bits post featuring just a few eclectic links from from around the web such as how we always have Uncertain Markets, 99 year old Munger Unloads on Crypto speaking his mind and it’s a beautiful thing, Kremlin’s Grand Delusion, the website History Maps is a great resource, the Boy in the Bubble, see you Friday…if I can get to it…
TBB Blog Mission: To Educate. Entertain. Inspire. In That Order!
Support TBB by applying for CREDIT CARDS or visiting our LINKS or Donate
You like my blog? Send a link to someone please!
This blog publishes every Friday and some Tuesdays. Fridays are the long curated posts, Tuesdays are the much shorter posts with a few curated links to share with you…
Welcome to all new blog readers from George, your diligent curator of the BEST web content I find and share with you. No ads, no clickbait.
All Markets Are Uncertain
Never ever forget this. If you are going to take a chance because you are convinced that something will happen, maybe, you know, don’t bet the house in case you are wrong! This is why it is good to make mistakes early in your investing when you don’t have that much money to blow. The first stock I ever bought (back in college, $500 on F&M stock!) went to zero and I never forgot it. In retrospect, what a great lesson that was! F&M used to be this weird discount retail chain in Michigan and I thought it was a value gem to be discovered and my research pouring over the financials and shopping at the store often made me go all in with the spare cash I had at the time. Which was only $500 lol. Well, long story short, company went bankrupt soon after my genius purchase, thanks Mr. Market.
Anyway, after this personal intro, please avoid forecasts okay? Author makes fun of them, deservedly so. Such as:
JP Morgan: “In the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 is expected to re-test the lows of 2022, but a pivot from the Fed could drive an asset recovery later in the year, pushing the S&P 500 to 4,200 by year-end.”
My summary: Markets should go down and they might go up.
In any given year, someone, simply due volume of forecasts, is “right”. I have yet to see anyone who can repeatedly, accurately forecast market outcomes. What we can say, with all certainty, looking backward, is that the S and P (and virtually every other market) has inexorably risen.
Forecasters stay in business because we keep them in business. We reward their firms with our investment dollars. These folks are all over the news. It makes sense when you ignore the data and let your emotions drive the investing bus.
If you are investor, and I am distinguishing investors from traders, it is clear that making frequent, substantive changes to your portfolio reduces your returns. There is plenty of research finding that the associated anxiety and stress are damaging to your mental and perhaps physical health.
Statistically the most accurate forecast is to say: “I have no idea. What I do know is that long periods, where you make few changes, have historically been extremely rewarding to investors.” We can also note, quite accurately, that something will happen which we could not predict.
I agree with the above of course and the following advice on what you should do:
Ignore the forecasters.
Have a plan.
Stick to your strategy.
Save continuously and automatically.
Maintain a cash reserve.
Understand that this is not necessarily a fun process. It’s boring.
Charlie Munger: ‘I’m not proud of my country’ for allowing ‘crypto sh-t’
He is 99 years old! Think about that for a moment. Are you done shaking your head? Ok, I’ll wait. I wish I can be this sharp at that age!
He is taking no prisoners and I love it!
In Munger’s view, traditional currencies have helped turn man “from a successful ape to a [successful] human,”…
“It isn’t even slightly stupid, it’s massively stupid, and of course it’s very dangerous, and of course the governments were totally wrong to permit it,”…
“And of course, I am not proud of my country for allowing this crap — well, I call it crypto shit. It’s worthless, it’s crazy, it’s not good, it’ll do nothing but harm, it’s antisocial to allow it.”…”I think the people that oppose my position are idiots,”…”And so I don’t think there is a rational argument against my position.”
“You oughta be able to state a lot of issues: how big should the social safety net be? That’s a place where reasonable minds can disagree, and you should be able to state the case on the other side about it as well as the case you believe in,” Munger said. “But when you’re dealing with something as awful as crypto shit, it’s just unspeakable,” he added. “I’m ashamed of my country that so many people believe in this kind of crap and the government allows it to exist.”
In recent years, Munger has called crypto a type of “venereal disease” and once referred to Bitcoin “probably rat poison squared.”
The Kremlin’s Grand Delusions
This is written by Fiona Hill and Angela Stent. I excerpt below the first two paragraphs, read the whole thing, it is a must read imho!
Despite a series of blunders, miscalculations, and battlefield reversals that would have surely seen him thrown out of office in most normal countries, President Vladimir Putin is still at the pinnacle of power in Russia. He continues to define the contours of his country’s war against Ukraine. He is micromanaging the invasion even as generals beneath him appear to be in charge of the battlefield. (This deputizing is done to protect him from blowback if something goes badly wrong in the war.) Putin and those immediately around him directly work to mobilize Russians on the home front and manipulate public views of the invasion abroad. He has in some ways succeeded in this information warfare.
The war has revealed the full extent of Putin’s personalized political system. After what is now 23 years at the helm of the Russian state, there are no obvious checks on his power. Institutions beyond the Kremlin count for little. “I would never have imagined that I would miss the Politburo,” said Rene Nyberg, the former Finnish ambassador to Moscow. “There is no political organization in Russia that has the power to hold the president and commander in chief accountable.” Diplomats, policymakers, and analysts are stuck in a doom loop—an endless back-and-forth argument among themselves—to figure out what Putin wants and how the West can shape his behavior.
What an amazing resource! I clicked on the link about the history of Greece and it was amazingly well done! Have fun with it, much better scrolling here than Facebook and Tik-Tok!
‘The Boy in the Bubble’ Moved a World He Couldn’t Touch
I ran into this recently and it triggered memories watching this kid on TV. Good to see science has advanced so much since then! Great 12 minute video, what a brave boy!
This blog’s income comes from smart responsible readers who love the frequent flyer miles and points game and choose to get travel rewards credit cards in my site, thank you!
HOT CREDIT CARD OFFERS: 90k CHASE Ink Cash, 90k CHASE Ink Unlimited, 75k Capital One Venture X, 100k CHASE Ink Business Preferred, 70k Bank of America Alaska Airlines Visa, 60k CHASE Sapphire Preferred, 60k CHASE World of Hyatt Visa, 20k CHASE Freedom Flex, 175k IHG Rewards Premier and many more, including many AmericanExpress cards, including Delta, Marriott and Hilton cards! Please check out my Affiliate links. Terms apply to American Express benefits and offers. Visit americanexpress.com to learn more. If you do not see a credit card with my affiliate links, perhaps I could refer you?
Some of the links are behind a paywall. You can try to read them using Archive.is.
You can subscribe to receive every post below:
Opinions expressed here are author’s alone, not those of any bank, credit card issuer, hotel, airline, or other entity. This content has not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of the entities included within the post.
Talk about a candid view of crypto! Wow.
One great advantage of teaching on zoom is that the cat gets in on the action! Cats make great graders: everyone fails. They are cats.
Thanks for the great links!
Carl Pietrantonio says
Silver! FTPNW! Thanks for the post, George! Gonna read that Foreign Affairs one later and just finished the boy in the bubble article. I read through the comments on that one and some interesting thoughts there too, I must say.
Hope all is going OK with your mom! Best wishes!
Nick @ PFD says
Saw your plane got diverted, ugh. Good luck with your mom.
Just got back…home! Yeah, what an ordeal for my mom! Just still do not believe that what the pilot said was “we are flying back to Detroit” when we were past dinner and was getting ready to sleep.
Rebooking was a clusterphuck, snowstorm tomorrow so we are heading out on Thursday and now I got a bunch of cancellations and rebookings to do…and I am exhausted, just imagine how an 83 year old woman feels.
My first experience on a Dreamliner and I don’t want to be near it again lol.
I guess it could be worse…