Wild FTX Trial, Michael Lewis Is Not Sorry, World Retirement Ages, Best Street Foods, Most Haunted Places, Chicago Marathon

Another TBB post featuring the most eclectic links around the web such as the wild FTX trial, Michael Lewis is not sorry, world retirement ages, the best street foods, the 20 most haunted places, the magnificent Chicago Marathon medal I earned, how you will be better off not buying stocks and move on with life owning ETFs, more horrific violence in the Middle East again, anti-vaccine conspiracy nuts, the number of animals killed every day will shock you, music concert archives and pet photography, best museums and street food and we always end with the latest developments in the crazy world of frequent flyer miles and points, enjoy your weekend!

 

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This blog publishes every Friday. If not Friday, it will be Monday. This is a one man labor of love operation, enjoy it white it lasts.

If you are here primarily for the miles and points content, please scroll way down to find it.

 

I want to single out one article that blew my mind.  More about this topic in its own section.

Chinese Bribes, Thai Prostitutes and an End to the Lies: Caroline Ellison’s Explosive Second Day of Testimony Against Sam Bankman-Fried

 

 

PERSONAL FINANCE

Excellent post: Why don’t you just sell all your stocks and buy ETFs, you’ll probably have better performance? The sad reality though is that a lot of people just won’t do this no matter what stats you shove to their face. It is like, you know, people blow billions on lottery tickets expecting to win smh. Article ends with some justifications why people continue to do this to themselves.

You are unlikely to have an informational or analytical advantage

It’s unlikely you will pick extreme outliers like Monster Beverage, Chipotle, Amazon, or Apple and hold them long enough

Most single stocks underperform Treasury Bills

Of the nearly 26,000 common stocks that have appeared on CRSP since 1926, less than half generated a positive holding period return, and only 42% have a holding period return higher than the one-month Treasury bill over the same time interval”

“When stated in terms of lifetime dollar wealth creation, one third of one percent of common stocks account for half of the overall stock market gains, and less than four percent of 28 common stocks account for all of the stock market gains. The other ninety six percent of stocks collectively matched Treasury-Bill returns over their lifetimes”.

If it has not come through in the previous article, you really need to give this investing thingie enough time to work. Which means pain comes with it and you need to be able to tolerate such pain. Investing Has Been Ugly. Stick With It. This is the direct link to NYT.

If you’ve lost money, take some deep breaths, practice yoga, watch a ballgame, enjoy time with family and friends — whatever works. But don’t make abrupt changes in your investments. A good plan is better than an emotional response when markets fall. [You do have a plan, right?]

Another amazing one from Visual Capitalist: Retirement Age by Country.

And…

 

SAM BANKMAN-FRIED FTX TRIAL AND MICHAEL LEWIS

Update: Again, this section will dominate this weeks’ post, I apologize. With the trial every day and so much attention to it I should have done a special post. But I don’t have the capacity to be posting more than once a week at this time. Oh boy, so much to unpack here, first I will give you my own take and then share with you all the worthy links.

Caroline Ellison’s testimony against SBF has been absolutely devastating for him. Actually, at this point, I just don’t see how this guy can be found innocent. Maybe his only shot left is to call Michael Lewis on the stand and have his defense attorneys flat out ask him if he thinks SBF is guilty. And Michael Lewis, who fell all over for this goofy nerdy character with the messy hair (part of the act per Caroline!) and was going to write this amazing book about…how Sam was going to be the first trillionaire giving it all away to charity and solving all of our problems blah blah blah.

But Mr. Lewis got lucky and FTX’s implosion served him an opportunity to continue writing the book to tell us all how it all went to shit. But, nope, he just could never do that and instead he keeps looking worse and worse insisting to read the book instead, you know, maybe be a little sorry for going along Sam’s charade? So disappointing! I think he still believes Sam is innocent and will come back to save us all smh…Well, we have seen some crazy things happen lately and everything is possible. But I wouldn’t take that bet. Because I am diametrically opposite with Sam’s incredibly insane risk appetite! If he is found guilty and is cut off from web access I am afraid he may end up like that Epstein creep…

The FTX trial, day six: A constant state of dread. Like I said, testimony has been totally devastating for SBF. Seven different spreadsheets, give them #7 lol. I am beyond words…

The FTX jury suffers through a code review. When you are in the hole and keep adjusting the code to allow Alameda to go negative…Since it was only going one way Gary Wang, the Chief Technology Officer of FTX, finally threw in a number to stop updating it and he went with $65 Billion. As in, Alameda could “borrow” from FTX up to this amount. Which meant taking from FTX customers’ money. Hoping somehow that this will work out in the end. Until it didn’t. And the code was explained as “allow_negative”. I mean, you can make this stuff up (pun intended). The more I learn about FTX is that all these kids around SBF knew all along what they were doing and were going along hoping it would all work out magically someway somehow. So, when the Feds came, they all plead guilty right away to try to avoid prison. Blaming SBF for everything which makes sense, this fiasco is SBF’s fault and maybe his defense should have advised him to make a deal? Then again, maybe they can fool just one juror…

Now, let’s switch to Michael Lewis and his book “Going Infinite” glorifying Sam, oh boy, where do I even start?

Where Michael Lewis Went Wrong. You think I have been harsh on my (former) idol author? No way, here is Nassim Taleb:

The tragedy of the good writer. Michael Lewis never had any idea how finance worked, yet managed for ~34 years to fool nonfinance people into believing that he knew what he was talking about. The good news is that one gets caught eventually, but 34 years is far too long!

Two things that stand out to me about Michael Lewis is him saying that FTX the exchange would be making crazy profits if it was just not for that run on customer deposits. How would he know? Would he be given spreadsheet #6? Or how FTX had built this amazing risk engine. I mean, if only they had implemented it. And they were showing how they had an insurance fund to cover bad losses for customers (you know, like FDCIC or SIPC but for crypto and shit coins) and the number showing up on its website was based on a random number generator programmed into the code. I am starting to think these were not kids that just lost track of the money Michael, maybe, I don’t know, you can find a humble gene in your DNA and say, maybe, you got this character wrong and you are sorry?

Michael Lewis Doesn’t Do Villains. Yeah, definitely! Michael still likes Sam. But man, I don’t know, maybe you fell for the hair and the Corolla? From NYT.

And, come on, Going Infinite? Even after the implosion? Maybe the ones responsible for getting the book out had changed the title to “Going to Prison”? Ok, I could not resist this dig, I am sorry. Let’s continue…

Barry Ritholtz, a buddy of Michael Lewis, came for help and had him on his popular podcast. This is what friends do, try to help. I am just going to leave it there…

And this, so disappointing indeed: Michael Lewis Likens Critics of His New Book on Sam Bankman-Fried to a ‘Mob’. And very upsetting too. Molly White shared my feelings on this one by tweeting this:

This time mag interview with michael lewis is really disappointing. he likens those who panned his book to a “mob”, doubles down on his book being a “letter to the jury”, and suggests that the two options available to a jury are acquittal or “lynching”.

and this, I was shaking my head so much at this point it almost separated from my body!

TIME: Do you believe Sam is a serial liar?

Michael Lewis: I think he’s a serial withholder.

“Serial withholder”, WTF is that supposed to mean? Speechless.

This section got way too long, I am sorry. I took out the Scams section and will have it for you guys next Friday…

 

GEOPOLITICS

I hope the events in Israel do not make us all forget what is being done to Ukraine…

I am going to say a few things and link to three great articles, all from The Atlantic, and move on. I subscribe to The Atlantic and I highly recommend it, support what you care about and want to see continue operating #hint. Remember how Jared Kushner was going to solve the Middle East problem? I guess the deep state did not allow him to do so. I am being sarcastic. Because of so much pain I am feeling. I think the last chance of a solution and peace ended when Rabin was assassinated by a far right Israeli wanting to derail the Oslo Accords. So, the bloodshed and suffering continues…

I watch the Greek media and I follow a TV channel in my hometown Larissa. They interviewed a Greek who has been working and living in Israel for the past 35 years. He said a few things that stood out: 1 ) This Hamas violence was the worst he had seen and can not stand and 2) He went on and on about his own family’s experience during the Hamas terrorist attack and then at the end, painfully, he said something that went like “ok, we will hit back, we will create more martyrs and this has been going on for so long, an eye for an eye until when, we all go blind? I think most of us just want to leave in peace. It’s just sad’. It sure is…

What I am still shocked about is how in the hell Israel let Hamas do this? Why were so many of its citizens unprotected? It just boggles the mind…This Atlantic article elaborates on this: The Reckoning. Israel must grapple first with its enemies, and then with the failures of its own government.

The Atlantic has a heartbreaking account of what took place: “We’re Going to Die Here”. A firsthand account of tragedy and heroism from the slaughter that left more than 900 Israelis dead.

Pray for the innocent dead and for the hostages. Hamas is cancer. Against Barbarism. Direct link from The Atlantic again.

The reality is that barbarians have attacked the margins and in some cases—as on 9/11—the core of the civilized world. We need to shake ourselves loose of the notion that these are completely distinct and limited phenomena. They are not. All of us, not just Israelis and Ukrainians, are in the fight of our lives, and it is about time we recognized that, and acted with the vigor and courage the times demand.

I think what comes next is going to be incredibly bloody. But Hamas went too far and they will be hunted down and so many more will die in the process. We were so close to getting a peace deal between the Israelis and the Saudis and I think Hamas sensed that and they derailed it.

Please also think of the innocent Palestinians as well. If we start demonizing everyone we’ll all go blind. Hug your loved ones and brace for more suffering.

I think seeing peace in that area in my lifetime is a long shot at this point. But we should not give up hoping and trying.

 

ODDZ & ENDZ

Another worthy fight is fighting against all the conspiracy nuts out there: Vaccine Scientist Warns Antiscience Conspiracies Have Become a Deadly, Organized Movement. Vaccinologist Peter Hotez explains how the movement to oppose science and scientists has gained power.

The first step is bringing in people from the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Commerce, the Department of Justice and the Department of State because of the role of Russia in amplifying the discord. I think we need an interagency task force [in the U.S.] and the same at the U.N. I don’t think the World Health Organization can solve this problem. I think this needs to go to the attention of the U.N. General Assembly and maybe the Security Council and NATO, perhaps, because it is a security threat, and it undermines democracies and the security of countries. [First, we need a Speaker of the US House of Representatives man!]

Good! Getting a $7,500 tax credit for an electric car will soon get a lot easier.

Massive Concerts database in Live Music Archive. Listen your heart out.

Amazing photography once again from the 2023 International Pet Photography Awards.

How many animals get slaughtered every day? This just blew my mind. I am trying to eat less meat by the way.