Another TBB post featuring the most eclectic links around the web such as the growth of millionaires, SpaceX and World Cup begin, the insane AI math, the Chase Sapphire Preferred refresh, retiring is hard, doing fraud with cattle, bank tellers protect customers from fraudsters, Iran war is over or maybe it is not, amazing fugitive family story, palace hotels, the best photography links and of course always all of the most important developments in the crazy world of frequent flyer miles and points at the lower half of the post. And much more. Enjoy the weekend.
Blog Mission: To Educate. Entertain. Inspire. In That Order!
No clickbait. No ads. No algorithms. No sponsors. No AI. No paywalls.
This blog started way back in 2012 focusing on my crazy hobby addiction of traveling with frequent flyer miles, hotel and bank points. It has since evolved to curated posts featuring the best web content along with my commentary.
BLOG HOUSEKEEPING
This is truly a one man labor of love operation, enjoy it while it lasts.
The Chase Sapphire Preferred card has been refreshed. And so has my blog after a very long time. Hope you like the new look. I also cut out a lot of salesy stuff, lowered the number of colors in the links and text and just tried to have a much more modern and clean look. To make it easier on your beautiful eyes and just make it a respectable looking site that I can be proud of. The content has not changed, it is something that is not negotiable. But maybe I split it into two posts per week because these Friday posts get way too long?
This venture has now definitely turned into a non profit venture after paying for the site refresh, it is what it is. Definitely appreciate the three readers who chose to use my site’s credit card links to apply for a credit card since May 1st.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.” – Charlie Munger
MUST READ GEMS
World Cup fever is on, bookmark this page for the complete schedule. And let’s talk about the games in the comments section.
This is required reading for anyone who follows some randos online and taking financial advice from them. No excerpts, read in its entirety. And be careful out there! How finfluencers prey on economic desperation.
Today we have the SpaceX IPO so this seems appropriate: How Much Will SpaceX Actually Cost Your Index. I wish indexes did not change their rules for accepting new companies. And we will soon have OpenAI and Anthropic join the money grab fest while it is hot. Could this the top or will this just get sorted out by the market after trading goes back to normal? And big down days are just another dip? I guess we’ll find out…
And just another reminder seems appropriate as well: Nobody Knows Anything, SpaceX IPO Edition. I don’t know, maybe looking back we will recall Morgan Stanley’s prediction that SpaceX’s revenue will reach $3.4 Trillion by 2040 THE top? Anyway, this is why when Wall Street forecasts anything you should see it as another opportunity to just laugh smh.
The world is composed of countless co-variables — not only things we cannot predict, but also secondary effects and unforeseen consequences that are even more impossible to forecast — the further out you look, the number of possible outcomes increases exponentially. So much happens over the course of a year that it makes forecasting challenging; 10-15 years into the future is utterly laughable. Look, I get it, analysts’ jobs are hard enough as is, and many of them are justifiably terrified about being replaced by Claude. Still, f*ckery tomfoolery like this does not give one confidence in this IPO process…
My work is mostly about getting my clients to retire. And it is incredibly satisfying when this happens and they are enjoying this chapter of their lives. And, you know, we all need a purpose so getting my still working clients to get there is a reason to keep working. Or maybe I am trying to postpone my own retirement because I am scared. Anyway, it has been much harder attacking this complicated subject on the personal front. Because: Retiring From Work Is Easy. Retiring Into Life Is Harder. If you are contemplating retirement at some point (yeah, almost everyone) this article is a must read. And I am starting to believe that the way to go is semi retirement and slowly easing into the next chapter instead of that one day you say goodbye to the structure that provided you, well, so much.
The more difficult adjustment is often psychological. After spending decades operating within structured routines and careers that shaped their schedules, relationships, identity, and sense of purpose, retirement can create an unexpected feeling of uncertainty. Even people who are financially prepared sometimes struggle once the structure and meaning that work provided begins to disappear. That reality catches many people off guard because most of us spend years preparing financially for retirement while spending very little time thinking about how we actually want to live once we get there.
The retirees who seem to transition most successfully are often the ones who begin building that life well before their final day of work. They cultivate interests, relationships, routines, and a sense of purpose long before retirement forces the issue. Financial planning remains important, but retirement is ultimately about much more than replacing a paycheck. A successful retirement is about building a life you genuinely want to wake up to once work is no longer deciding how your days will be spent.
TECH/SCAMS/CRYPTO
I had no idea there was so much rampant fraud in the cattle industry. And this guy was really on to something taking so many people for a ride: The Cattle Empire That Turned Out to Be a Giant Ponzi Scheme. Investors and bank loans fueled Brian McClain’s ‘house of cards’ beef operations, which burned through $170 million. Wild stuff, some people are addicted to living the good life and gotta have it anyway they can. Also, amazing how easy financing was doing this, I guess no real inventory controls were present. To be off by so many cattle is unforgivable imho.
I think if you a behavioral scientist your job prospects are very bright. Because banks will want you badly: Customers Are Giving Billions to Scammers. Tellers Are Intervening. With cybercrime continuing to rise, some banks are testing new prevention strategies. JPMorgan Chase hired a behavioral scientist. Be careful out there, watch your aging parents!
Investigation by Reuters. If you are shocked, you are not paying attention: Under the Trump crypto playbook, the family always wins. Investors don’t. Risking little of their own money, the US president and his sons have added at least $2.3 billion to the family fortune from their main crypto ventures, while the investors they’ve wooed have taken a $2.3 billion hit, a Reuters examination found.
I have clients who are software engineers. And both my kids are in the tech industry. And their friends read my blog. So, this article appeals mainly to software engineers and anyone who is into this thing that is changing (it appears) everything: AI enthusiasts are in a race against time, AI skeptics are in a race against entropy. Both sides are grappling with a real existential threat, and both sides feel like they are screaming into the void. There is a way to close the gap and get everyone pulling in the same direction.
GenAI is a risky bet that could pay off, or it could well tank the economy. (A more reliable form of AI might be a safer bet.) Certainly, SpaceX will never return the way Amazon did. OpenAI is in trouble, and may not make it. Anthropic has a chance of being profitable, but reaching 10x the IPO price would be amazing. To get to 100x the expected IPO price of $1 trillion would mean a market cap of nearly the entire world GDP (about $125 trillion), another manifest absurdity; 1000x is out of the question.
We’ll see what happens. And always diversify!
IRAN WAR
Is this final deal the one that sticks? Are we sure? Anyone keeping count how many times Trump said we are near a deal? I think we must be past forty times by now…Same old shit. To make all this surreal, we have Iran’s football team (just can’t be saying soccer anymore) playing 3 games in the World Cup in the US…
The world, then, might settle into a new normal in which the United States maintains some kind of blockade of Iran, Iran maintains some kind of blockade of the strait, and both sides perpetually engage in skirmishes and perhaps return to outright conflict. Such an outcome will be terrible for Iran’s 90 million residents, who now face a continued collapse in their living standards. It will also be bad for the billions of people across the world who depend on the Strait of Hormuz for oil, gas, and fertilizers. But as far as the regime is concerned, it is not bad for Iran’s government. The Islamic Republic remains functional, operational, and cohesive. It has demonstrated that it can withstand extreme amounts of pressure. Most of all, it has proved that it can single-handedly weaken the global economy—and that it is thus a force to be reckoned with.
And do not forget we have the other war between Russia and Ukraine still going strong. Which has now lasted longer than World War I!
ODDZ & ENDZ
Covid never went away. And people suffering from it are still out there. And we are learning more about it: The Painful Truth About Long Covid. Must read if you are one of those people or just interested on the subject. Some diseases and viruses are just weird and this one sure qualifies. There might finally be a way forward for long Covid treatment—if only you were allowed to talk about it.
Six years since the height of the pandemic, the scientific community remains baffled by long Covid. Researchers still don’t know why some people’s symptoms persist or worsen after the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection has passed. Almost $2 billion and half a decade of international effort have yielded little more than hypotheses about micro blood clots and spike proteins and mitochondrial dysfunction. There isn’t a single approved pharmaceutical treatment, not even a test to verify the presence of the illness.
Incredible story told by a lady who as a young kid of parents drug dealing in the big leagues she had to keep moving to be a step ahead of the law. With Michigan connections. Why isn’t this a movie yet? You Can Run. How can you do this to your own kids? Blown away with what these kids went through and the amazing resilience to just do fraud even from prison wtf!
Emotionally, though, he was the same. Even in prison, he continued to try to control his daughters. For years he told Erin that she needed to become an investment banker, even though she wasn’t interested in finance. He told both daughters where they should go to college. And his appetite for schemes never diminished. After Erin got married, John tried to persuade her husband to go in on a phone-sex business and split the profits with him.
Amazing art project. Or whatever you want to call this. I bring you stuff you probably do not see anywhere else together in one blog post. I would like to think so anyway. Because it makes me feel good: Windows.
TRAVEL
Another interesting travel startup, focusing on small groups: WeRoad. Tagline: “Grab your backpack, we’ll bring the friends Travel in small groups, with people your age”. If any of you traveled with this company please share your feedback in the comments.
This annual list is always fun as we all shake our heads violently thinking who the hell forgets stuff like that! The 10th Annual Uber Lost & Found Index. The Top 10 below
FIFA sucks, it is like this amazing fortress of fraud and favoritism and clicques and endemic corruption. And it is like we can not get rid of it becoming part of our lives. Reminds me of Elon Musk, that….ok, let’s not go there, stay positive. And this is a dive on FIFA’s president, this is the guy who gave Trump the (new) peace prize to, incredibly, take ass kissing to never imagined levels. Anyway, this is what we are dealing with and yet…I’ll be watching: The World Cup According to Gianni Infantino. FIFA’s powerful president is remaking global soccer in his own image. Can the sport survive him? Sometimes I do wonder if I will still be watching four years from now…
Of course I want Team USA to go further than ever in the tournament. But, realistically speaking, I just hope we go past the first round and then just give everything and see what happens. Many around the world hate the US and when World Cup time comes around they channel these feelings towards our team. Because, well, it is the one and only World Cup, this is what it does. But you must realize that football here is still the sport that most Americans don’t understand. And our guys have tried really really hard over the years to make it a respectable sport and it has come such a long way. And continues to progress and hopefully we can continue the run. I remember watching our teams back in the 80s and 90s trying to qualify for the World Cup. A team full of amateurs with almost no one playing in the big European pro leagues. I am always with the underdogs and Team USA is the ultimate underdog, let’s go! Kicking and Screaming: The 75-Year Struggle That Forged America Into a Soccer Nation. From a forgotten match in deepest Brazil to the arrival of global superstars on American shores, the U.S. has grown from soccer backwater into host of the biggest World Cup in history.
Reminder: I will be commenting on the games in the comments. And making score predictions. Which will almost always be wrong lol. So, good luck to all underdogs of the tournament. And going out on predicting the winner of this year’s tournament, a shocker: England. Anyway, anyone but Argentina please lol.
This blog started with a focus on miles and points and travel. It has evolved since then. Everything below deals with the hobby of collecting frequent flyer miles and points and maximizing your travel experiences. If you are not interested, you can stop here, thank you.
MILES & POINTS
So, here we go again…
We have a major event in this space, the refresh of the CHASE Sapphire Preferred Card, please see separate section below.
And the two negatives are that Chase Ultimate Rewards points no longer transfer to World of Hyatt 1:1 (it is now 4:3 for a steep 25% devaluation) and the previously announced end of the 10% annual anniversary bonus (which was not a big deal).
Southwest Priority ($229 fee): Earn 90,000 points after you spend $3,000 on purchases in the first 3 months from account opening.
Southwest Premier ($149 fee): Earn 85,000 points after you spend $2,000 on purchases in the first 3 months from account opening.
Southwest Plus ($99 fee): Earn 80,000 points after you spend $1,000 on purchases in the first 3 months from account opening.
150k AMEX Marriott Bonvoy Business PLUS $125 Statement Credit: $125 Annual fee, minimum spend $8,000 in the first six months. For more info on the card’s benefits click HERE. (ENDING JULY 15)
125k CHASE Marriott Bonvoy Boundless + 1 Free Night: Minimum spend is $3,000 over three months.
185k CHASE IHG One Rewards Premier: $99 annual fee. 150,000 points after spending $3,000 in the first three months. And another 35,000 points after spending a total of $6,000 in the first six months. (ENDING JUNE 24)
125k CHASE IHG One Rewards Traveler: No annual fee. 90,000 bonus points after spending $2,000 in the first three months. And another 35,000 points after spending a total of $4,000 in the first six months. (ENDING JUNE 24).
As High As 200,000 Points on the AMEX Business Gold after spending $15k in the first three months
100,000 BANK OF AMERICA Atmos Summit after spending $6,500 in the first three months. And a 50% flight discount voucher
80,000 BANK OF AMERICA Atmos Ascent after spending $4,000 in the first four months. And a 50% flight discount voucher
85,000 BANK OF AMERICA Atmos Business after spending $5,500 in the first three months
75k CITI AAdvantage Business World Elite MasterCard
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BONUS OFFERS NOTIFICATIONS
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MY ACTION AND BLOG BUZZING
So, the big news in this miles hobby was the refresh of the Chase Sapphire Preferred card. We all knew it was coming. And yet, it all came suddenly. And amidst all the surprisingly good news (shocked that the annual fee remained at only $95, addition of 3% earning categories for gas, EV charging and Airbnb, doubling of the hotel credit to $100, addition of emergency medical evacuation coverage and transportation) the big hurt remains the end of 1:1 transfers. And it began with the most valuable transfer partner Chase has, World of Hyatt. Which did a double whammy on devaluing its own points recently. Which absolutely hurts and changes, well, everything.
So I am reevaluating my relationship with Hyatt. I am not sure if I am going to reach 60 nights to requalify as Globalist again. Why bother when I lose 25% transferring from Chase? And no I am not going to upgrade to the Chase Sapphire Reserve to keep the transfers to Hyatt at 1:1 because the CSR credits suck. I just transferred all remaining points from the CSR to Hyatt and will be dropping my CSR when the annual fee hits, I believe on July 1st. The Chase Ultimate Rewards points gravy is over with the introduction of severe restrictions in getting its cards more than one time. Which changes, well, everything.
Is it time to go hotel free agent route? Well, certainly now this is a definite consideration. You know, I have several free nights and hotel discounts every year. Let’s count them: 1 free Hyatt night from the personal Visa card, 1 free Hyatt night after $15k spend on the personal Visa, 1 free Hilton night after $15k spend on the Hilton Surpass card, 2 mostly free FHR hotel nights (or four if we go the THC route) with the new Schwab Amex Platinum card my wife got, 1 free Fairrmont night with my Accor Lifetime Platinum status, $100 hotel credit from the CSP card. And more free Hyatt nights are coming at 30 night Milestone Rewards and so forth. We are already up to 8 (or 10) nights. And maybe I do go back to taking advantage of my Accor Lifetime Platinum status to enhance my stays to finally let go of the World of Hyatt Globalist elite status addiction…
Chase is zeroing in on the people who never transfer any points out. And if you never transferred to Hyatt, these changes are absolutely great. And if you like simplicity you now have no reason to ever cancel the CSP card. And pull it out way more often with addition of 3x on gas/EV streaming/Airbnb and of course, dining. So, we all four in our household are not canceling this card. But I think going forward we will likely transfer to United and just focus on redeeming on business class airfare going forward. And get used to paying more out of pocket for travel, this amazing travel for free period is over. Too many of us around managed to squeeze amazing values over the years from banks, airlines and hotels. And the free ride is over. It sucks but I am grateful for the opportunity of course.
Another 4,520 United miles posted. From a 3x on gas/grocerries/dining spend promo on my United Gateway card. The last two spend promos on the card were not that good so I did not register for them. And this is the first time in a very long time I am not working on a United Gateway spend promotion. Which is kind of strange lol.
Very slowly putting the pieces together on our upcoming trip to SE Asia. We are attending a wedding in Singapore and I just proactively booked two nights at the Singapore Conrad Orchard for 150,000 Hilton Honors points. Only to find out that the wedding party has booked the M Hotel for us those two nights. So I easily canceled my Hilton reservation. All in the Hilton app, which is a good one. I might blow an FHR night at the other Conrad in Singapore, Conrad Marina Bay. Or blow my free night at the Singapore Fairmont again, a fabulous property. Have you noticed how I am no longer thinking Hyatt first? Or is there a must visit Hyatt in Singapore I should check out?
Not adding Krabi in this year’s trip to Thailand. So, it will be Bangkok with 4 nights already booked at the Park Hyatt Saigon before returning to Bangkok. And then on to Singapore for the wedding. So, I am at 20 nights plus the 4 coming, so 24. I am playing around with the Bangkok hotel stays. One of the two Category 1 Hyatt Place properties in Bangkok has a prepaid non refundable deal for 30 nights that comes out to about $67-68 usd per night. This will mean that about 5 or 6 nights will have no one in the room, ghost stays. Or I can burn only 4,500 points per night in both of these properties. Or pay about $81 or $86 per night. So, points valuation comes out to about 1.9 cents per dollar. You see, I never did this points valuation thingie. Because I had an unlimited amount of Chase points transferring to Hyatt. Now the situation has changed. And I am torn on what to do. Will be thinking about it over the next month while watching World Cup games…
Hilton Honors points still remain my alternate points pool to use. And oh did they come handy last week! I decided to meet a client in downtown Cleveland as they were heading to the Brazil – Egypt WC prep friendly game. I thought I would have no problem booking a night at a Hyatt. Well, I was wrong. All the Hyatts were completely sold out. The only room available was a premium room at the Hyatt Regency Arcades property for, please sit down, 11,500 points PLUS over $500 per night LOL. My only other choice was a Hyatt Place for 10,000 points located in Canton, over one hour away from downtown, crazy! And that Canton 10k deal was gone the morning of the day prior to the meeting. I was resigned to just drive early the day of the meeting. Fired up the Hilton app and boom, I booked the home2 suites by Hilton less than 10 miles away from Cleveland downtown for 40k Hilton Honors points. First time in a home2 suites property and I really liked it. Free breakfast (for all) even had some healthy options, great stay.
The New York Knicks comeback from 29 points down in Game 4 of the NBA Finals will be remembered for a very long time. And that last shot will be talked about for ever. It already has a deserved nickname, the Right Hand of God game.
I absolutely loved the movie Tuner. I am glad I live in Ann Arbor, Michigan where we can see such films. Also, I learned about the medical condition hyperacusis which I think I have which led me down the path of online researching. Highly recommended movie. But then again, we are all different.
Big home renovation project is nearing its end. Wood floor setting in right now, carpet installation early next week and final touches hopefully by the end of next week. If I knew how much it will all cost and how long it will take and, primarily, all the meetings and decisions and general headaches this project will bring upon, maybe I would not go for it. But I am glad it is almost over and it is looking really nice. For the record, I don’t love inflation, almost no one does!
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For email list subscibers, did you receive the email at the regular 8 am time. Or did you receive two emails about an hour apart? Please let me know.
Trying to determine if the new format caused a change in how Mailchimp sends the emails out…
Any other feedback on the site refresh?
Yeah, cash back. It is coming closer day by day. To me, this miles/points stuff is still a game and a hobby. To travel for free…well, never mind. To enhance travel and lower its costs. Do not need the cash back but maybe, if current trend continues, it will make more sense to go there. And then just start booking everything on Rove.
Bilt fanboys celebrating they are the only outlet to transfer to Hyatt 1:1…we’ll see how long this stands.
“I wish indexes did not change their rules for accepting new companies.” Me too, it’s corrupt. But wealthy, connected insiders need exit liquidity so I hope retail enjoys having an overvalued company shoved into their retirement plan. This is why I’m avoiding ETFs with large cap domestic stocks in my 401k. Mike Green is right: indexing can get dangerous when everybody does it.
I got both versions of the Blog Post I Like Most today, and yes, about an hour apart. At least according to the time stamps. I’m always asleep still when these come out. It is the West Coast and I am also retired so I sleep in. Though today will be the second day of the House Getting Painted project. I’d put in a photo of it but I do not know how.
I am happy for you that you got the site revision you wanted and I will always read it, but to be honest, I like the old version better. Both because I am used to it and also because it just looked right to me. But progress marches on and it is your baby. Besides, I like what you say even more than how it looks so you can’t lose me with a re-design!
Looking at moving all my UR to Hyatt before the cut comes. I only have the CSP anyhow and do not use it much, nor do I use Hyatt much except when I visit my Daughter as there is a Cat 1 (still!) very near her house so that is handy.
Anyhow, congrats on the revamp and thanks as always for all the work you do to put this together!
Like the web site change. Citi cash back?
For email list subscibers, did you receive the email at the regular 8 am time. Or did you receive two emails about an hour apart? Please let me know.
Trying to determine if the new format caused a change in how Mailchimp sends the emails out…
Any other feedback on the site refresh?
Yeah, cash back. It is coming closer day by day. To me, this miles/points stuff is still a game and a hobby. To travel for free…well, never mind. To enhance travel and lower its costs. Do not need the cash back but maybe, if current trend continues, it will make more sense to go there. And then just start booking everything on Rove.
Bilt fanboys celebrating they are the only outlet to transfer to Hyatt 1:1…we’ll see how long this stands.
I only received the email at the normal time, didn’t receive a second one.
Great post, keep it up!
World Cup predictions:
Canada 1 Bosnia Herzegovina 1
USA 2 Paraguay 1
I don’t have confidence in these predictions by the way. On the contrary, I was certain that Mexico and South Korea would win yesterday.
George, you’re exaggerating with that 40 peace deals comment. It’s only 39: https://x.com/ErikSTownsend/status/2065235304953569431
“I wish indexes did not change their rules for accepting new companies.” Me too, it’s corrupt. But wealthy, connected insiders need exit liquidity so I hope retail enjoys having an overvalued company shoved into their retirement plan. This is why I’m avoiding ETFs with large cap domestic stocks in my 401k. Mike Green is right: indexing can get dangerous when everybody does it.
Hyatt, thanks for the memories. It’s been fun.
I got both versions of the Blog Post I Like Most today, and yes, about an hour apart. At least according to the time stamps. I’m always asleep still when these come out. It is the West Coast and I am also retired so I sleep in. Though today will be the second day of the House Getting Painted project. I’d put in a photo of it but I do not know how.
I am happy for you that you got the site revision you wanted and I will always read it, but to be honest, I like the old version better. Both because I am used to it and also because it just looked right to me. But progress marches on and it is your baby. Besides, I like what you say even more than how it looks so you can’t lose me with a re-design!
Looking at moving all my UR to Hyatt before the cut comes. I only have the CSP anyhow and do not use it much, nor do I use Hyatt much except when I visit my Daughter as there is a Cat 1 (still!) very near her house so that is handy.
Anyhow, congrats on the revamp and thanks as always for all the work you do to put this together!
The refresh is really nice! Congrats!
I do appreciate how much work you put in for all of us!
love the new design…looks great!
Site refresh looks good.