Stock Market Bubbles, AI Resistant Jobs, Unedited Elon Musk, Bangkok for Beginners, Mileslink

Another TBB post featuring the most eclectic links around the web such as stock market bubbles, AI resistant jobs, unedited Elon Musk interview, Bangkok for Beginners, Mileslink, Social Security program, AI boom and AI hedge fund blowups, scam centers plague, best documentaries, Art Atlas map, Vietnam scams, the best photography and Thailand links and of course always all of the most important developments in the crazy world of frequent flyer miles and points at the lower half of the post. And much more. Enjoy the weekend.

 

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This blog started way back in 2012 focusing on my crazy hobby addiction of traveling with frequent flyer miles, hotel and bank points. It has since evolved to curated posts featuring the best web content along with my commentary.

 

BLOG HOUSEKEEPING

This is truly a one man labor of love operation, enjoy it while it lasts.

I rearranged two blog sections and split them up, now listed as AI/TECH and SCAMS/CRYPTO. I am thinking to retire crypto related stories/links. Because, does anyone care anymore? We shall see, any feedback is appreciated.

If you subscribe to my blog newsletter (which is simply an email with each published blog post at 8 am that day) please check your Spam folder for a confirmation email, thank you.

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

β€œWhat we achieve inwardly will change outer reality” – Plutarch

 

MUST READ GEMSΒ 

For your deep reading over the weekend I recommend:

Why China got rich and India didn’t

 

 

PERSONAL FINANCE

As we are again at market highs, maybe this is a good read now: America is Great at Creating Stock Market Bubbles — and Shrugging Them Off.Β One day the bust will be the big one, but for now the pullback in AI-related stocks has been almost completely offset by gains elsewhere. Where we are these days:

We are heading into a danger area now, thanks to the money being poured into artificial intelligence. Estimates of $7 trillion to be spent on data centers in the next four years are enough to seriously damage the economy if productivity gains aren’t big enough to justify it.Β And the increasing use of debt financing means that if AI more broadly turns out to be a bubble, it could hit the financial system, too. That isn’t something the broader market could ignore.

Great article about all things Social Security. I have been asked before if I think this government benefit will be around in the future. And my response is that it certainly will. I think older people (say over age 50) should be fine but younger people will probably not get as juicy of a benefit. And we all know some painful adjustments will eventually need to be made at some point. And the longer we kick the can down the road these adjustments will get more painful. A few more things from my experience being a financial advisor for over 30 years. I generally recommend people wait until age 70 to claim their Social Security Benefits to lock up the largest inflation adjusted cash inflow for the rest of their lives. Unless they clearly need the money to live on and/or they have a grim medical diagnosis that comes with a limited life expectancy. That’s it. Of course everyone is different but in general I believe this is a good starting point/rule of thumb.

Morgan Housel had started a YouTube channel a while ago. And then stopped posting videos. But he is back and his videos are great and I highly recommend subscribing.

 

 

AI/TECH

Perfect headline?Β The AI Boom Is Transforming the American Economy Beyond Recognition.

Very deep dive on Larry Ellison:Β Larry Ellison Bet It All on the A.I. Boom. Will He Be the Face of the A.I. Bubble? Inside the 81-year-old billionaire’s risky, debt-fueled scramble to transform his data empire into an A.I. juggernaut. Is this whole tech AI field dominated by assholes or what?

So this young Leopold hedge fund kid blew up his fund last week. Because, you know, hedging (risk) was non existent. He wrote some AI manifesto a few years ago and then was given lots of money by rich dudes and he went ALL IN on AI stocks. AND leveraged up everything 3 to 5 times! And then, of course, the stocks started going south and he kept selling until he had to sell all public stocks to another hedge fund dude (Citadel’s Ken Griffin) to stop from going completely bankrupt. And all this happened while he was getting married. To the Chief of Staff of Anthropic’s CEO, how conveeeeenient. Anyway, he goes on X and posts this letter to his investors smh.

“Dear Partners, we let you down this month” [ LOL, yeah, no shit!]

“I will make it my mission to ensure that we learn the necessary lessons from this experience”. [Okay dude, sure., it’s all about winning LOL]

While we could say much about how unusual the month was, we hold ourselves to a higher standard, irrespective of market conditions…We embrace volatility. But it should never jeopardize the fund.” [This is some very high level BS wow. I am screaming WTF inside!]

Update: Apparently, he somehow got enough big shots to again give him $400 million to start a new venture capital fund smh.

Two visuals for you: First, the AI resistant jobs, ranked (found HERE). I am surprised to see Senior Software Engineer ranked so high.

Bar chart ranking the top 20 in-demand U.S. jobs by AI resilience score, led by registered nurses (82.2), home health aides (72.7), and elementary school teachers (70.0), with wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives ranking lowest (26.1). Visualization created by Julie R. Peasley using JobZone Risk and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

And blown away every day with the loads of billions spent on AI. Mind you, still being mostly paid by profits. But we now also have debt going way up to assist in this era (found HERE) and we all know leveraging can lead to, cough, blowups…at some point:

 

SCAMS/CRYPTO

You know we live in crazy times when we see headlines like this:Β The Billionaire Blowing the Whistle on Trump’s Crypto Shop.Β World Liberty put $800 million in the president’s pocket. Justin Sun is alleging fraud.Β It is Justin Sun everybody, that dude who paid millions for a banana only to eat it. So, it could not happen to a nicer guy lol. Can you imagine Biden or Obama making billions from a crypto shop? Me neither smh.

The Economist interviewed Elon Musk. And posted the entire interview online UNEDITED. I kept shaking my head with this guy. Do you remember the movie Natural Born Killers? If someone made Natural Born Assholes it would be about this guy. I am going to stop here before my blood pressure explodes. Because the non stop bullshit coming out of this guy is abundant (pun intended)…

Amazing investigative journalism here in this article: The mayor of Scamtown. Long read, you have been warned. These scam centers are a cancer that needs to be eradicated. So disgusted reading this what these scum are doing…

 

 

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31 Comments

  1. What would be your plans for accommodation if you are staying in Bangkok for extended periods? Have you toured any condos for 3 month periods and what are the costs like? What we like about Thailand is the vibrancy, it feels like everyone is trying to make something happen, they hustle but not in a scammy way. I think part of it might be down to a younger population who are eager to perhaps have a better life than their parents did. BTW Andaz Pattaya does a good beef massaman.

    1. I have been looking at BKK condo videos for a while. But we are too far from committing to one year leases, which are highly preferred by landlords and they are priced accordingly. Are there condos offering 6 month leases? Yes, there are but they don’t get the pricing break with one year leases. And if you offer to sign up for 2 years you can drive a hard bargain. Rental market leans heavily towards tenants, supply and demand rules. And the supply is just abundant, many condos are sitting empty.

      For stays up to six months they have the so called service apartments. They are certainly more expensive than leasing a condo but they can work great if you are not that price sensitive as they roll into the monthly rent some of the utilities. And cleaning the room a certain number of times weekly too. So, very stay friendly for sure.

      The Hyatt Place at Soi 24 has a month long deal but I am pretty sure it does not cover the busy tourist season, November to January. Actually I think it ends September 30. 30 nights, 65,000 Thai Baht which is about $2,000 in today’s USD. And you get, you know, breakfast πŸ™‚

      I agree about the vibrancy of Bangkok.

      When I see massaman on the menu I gotta eat it.

      Hope this helps.

  2. Wow! Tons of reading this week! Thanks! What Vicky says above is how I felt when I visited Saigon and, to a slightly lesser extent, Hanoi back a few years. I have been trying to plan some travel but it just isn’t happening. I might be aging out of it or might have to plan shorter trips or even do tours. (I hate tours) Might even be time to just stay put and raise some chickens as I have wanted to do for many years.

    Please keep the Scams/Crypto stuff as that section usually has stuff I like to read about. Though to be honest I read through pretty much every section.

    1. We were talking about modes of traveling as we age. I still resist tours and cruises but I must admit they sound better they older I get.

      We have a neighbor who raises chickens. I think it is the only house in the whole subdivision. Kind of strange in my area…but not that strange in Ann Arbor.

      Thanks for the feedback on keeping the Scams/Crypto section.

      1. We have decided that rather than stop travelling we will use our money to smooth our path when necessary. For example last trip to Bangkok we booked the Fast Track service through the Park Hyatt. Was it an unnecessary expense, without a doubt. But something nice about arriving at the C gates facing a 15+ minute walk to immigration and having a buggy collect you and whisk you through immigration. Once they have collected your bag it’s straight out the front door and into your waiting car which is sitting there. In more difficult places to plan like Egypt we will use a guide all the way to remove the stresses involved, same with trips to Africa though they are likely to be private or semi private tours.

        1. We are starting to do the same. One of these days we will buy a business class international ticket but, you know, with miles in the bank…we are not there yet lol.

          I arranged a car services my first time in Bangkok in 2023 via the Hyatt Regency. The ride was great of course but, after learning more about the airport and rides to/from it, it was clearly overpriced. I haven’t looked into the Fast Track service at BKK. I am very interested in arranging transportation in Saigon’s airport with the Park Hyatt as we are landing there for the first time and want to make the 4 night excursion special.

          Booked another award to BKK and canceled the United one, more details below sometime later today Sunday.

          1. We used the hotel car service when we stayed at the PH Saigon probably 10+ years ago. Using the hotel car service is something we choose to do when we arrive at an unfamiliar city. There is something nice about someone smoothing out all the possible bumps in the road. Advantage of the hotel car is they know you are coming and no hanging around front desk to check in, whisked upstairs to your accommodation for check in procedures etc. And if it is a special trip it is certainly worth spending the $s even though you know in your brain you don’t need to be spending that money we always justify it by telling ourselves we are helping the local economy.

  3. You outdid yourself with the links today! I started to read one rather long
    post but I’ll have to finishing over weekend.

    Thanks for everything!

    1. I changed how the blog post comes together. To reduce time/stress producing it.
      I have added some links early in the morning each day. To cut down on the ridiculous spree that happens each Thursday all day and Friday early morning to publish before Friday 8 am.

      Well, it did not work. The post became even longer and my time/stress certainly did not go down.

      So, it is what it is.

  4. Hey Buzz,
    I concur, great post today. I for one still enjoy the crypto scam section. Good to know your enemies right?
    Lots of assholes highlighted today. I have no idea why they think they may be immune to everything that’s going on with our planet.
    Lame Hyatt promo again. Used to love spending a week at the Ziva Puerto Vallarta watching the whales from their great beach. But the points required these days for a place that desperately needs a renovation is completely absurd.
    I’m also very appreciative of the posts regarding SE Asia as I’m definitely thinking along the same lines you are. Spending a few months there in the winter, a few months in Europe when it’s not on fire and some traveling.
    All comments from the TBB clan are welcome, love to hear travel tips on places I have not been.
    Carl, if you ever get the chance to go to Scilla or Otranto I’ve got a couple restaurant recommendations for you. I loved reading about the restaurants with the plates, had never heard of that before.
    Thanks again Buzz, have a great weekend

    1. Hey Dmitri, thanks for the recommendations on Scilla and Otranto. Send them on, please! Almost made it to Otranto one time but plans changed. I am completely unfamiliar with Scilla but will look into it and of course I love hearing about new restaurants to try and perhaps there is a plate or two in those places for me to score!

  5. Hmmm, β€œ wait until age 70 to claim their Social Security Benefits”, while male life expectancy is only 76. That’s on average only 6 years on SS. Makes more sense for women.
    Thailand has β€œbit trendy lately” for the last ~30-40years ( minus CoViD). The 2004 tsunami was among the worst natural disasters to hit Swedes (in Thailand).

  6. On SS at age 70: My advice to claim at age 70 is as a starting point. All my clients are in good to great health and all think they get a decent shot to live a good life past age 85. And certainly past 81 to 83, which is the “break even”, again in general. They all certainly do not need the cash and I throw it back to them while of course doing some scenarios if a spouse is around. And it allows higher withdrawals in their 50s and 60s to live it up in a way when much younger while having the peace of mind of locking in a big lifetime check at age 70. Hope this clarifies it.

    On trendy Thailand: I was mostly referring to the subject in YouTube videos. All these vloggers tend to copy each other. They are algorithm slaves basically. And after Covid the Thai vlogger “expert” has been posting “I escaped America and moved to Thailand and live on $____ per month/a luxury condo with rent $___ per month” and blah blah blah. And suddenly, you now see the following wave: “Thailand is not the same, moving to Vietnam” blah blah blah.

    I knew it was bad for the Swedes at the tsunami but worst, really?

  7. Added another reason why I like Thailand to the post:

    The infrastructure (wifi and public transportation especially) is top notch in Bangkok enabling a high quality of life. I think it is second only to Singapore (which is of course one of the most expensive cities in the world).

  8. Long time reader. Sorry, I haven’t commented in a while.

    I would agree with the Social Security at 70. However, as a college prof in healthcare management and an immigrant from Western Europe, I have a very hard time wrapping my head around the crappy healthcare system and the horrible life expectancy in the US compared to other comparable countries.

    Take Japan, Switzerland, Western Europe, it’s all in the mid 80s. In the US, it seems very common for men not to make it past 75. Even politicians and actors who supposedly have better access than regular people do not seem to live longer.

    1. Point well taken. I am flying across the world to get me caring health care at a fraction of the cost here in the US. I think the US avg is skewed due to the meth (and Covid) deaths slightly. Then again, you know, like all drivers, we (and my clients) are not average πŸ™‚

  9. Massaman is my favorite Thai dish! I love it so much I learned how to make it. It’s actually pretty simple, just requires a lot of ingredients. This is the recipe I use with a few modifications: https://lifemadesimplebakes.com/homemade-massaman-curry-5/

    Question for you: our oldest goes off to college this weekend and I’m naturally thinking about summer vacations next year. Given that your kids have been through this, is there a best time for a family vacation when the kids are in college? Should you try to snag them for that week right after finals or what?

    1. Thanks for the recipe, I passed it along to my wife who is in charge of that department. Because I can’t cook anything at all, I just eat πŸ™‚

      When kids go to college they just did things on their own in their own schedule. We are not as cool as we used to be at that age lol. I find it easier I think after they start working if they work remotely. As they could arrange before hand to spend, say a week around Thanksgiving, in Thailand with us. Other than that, college Spring Breaks could be good only IF you propose to them an amazing free trip πŸ˜‰ Starting with the sophomore to junior year they are likely doing the internship thing (VERY important, both my kids got full time job offers after internships) so the week or two before the internships start is also a great time. On the other hand, putting together awards is so much easier πŸ™‚

  10. US Bank has just entered the building…

    Will respond to comments tomorrow…too much going on and need to focus on other things that pay the bills…

  11. Unless something else comes into the picture…I need to cancel one of these awards. And I am torn…

    AA award:
    DTW-DFW on AA First Class on 737-800 flight departs at 5.41 am
    3.20 hrs connection at DFW
    DFW-HND on AA First Class on 777-300ER
    11 hrs connection at HND
    HND-BKK on JAL Business Class on 787-9
    arrive at BKK at 5.45 am

    Aeroplan award:
    DTW-FRA on Lufthansa Business Class on 787-9 departs at 4 pm
    3.5 hrs connection in FRA
    FRA-MUC on Lufthansa Business Class on A321
    4.15 hrs connection in MUC
    MUC-BKK on Thai Airways Business Class on A350-900
    arrive at BKK at 6.05 am

    AA award: 100,000 miles vs Aeroplan award 118,500 (fully cancelable)

    -I am concerned with AA getting me from DTW to DFW the most, have had AA screw up my last two trips super badly.
    -Would rather not depart at 5.41 am but it’s ok. With Aeroplan award I do gain mostly a day of work by departing for the airport many hours later.
    -Never flew AA First Class to Asia. Have flown Lufthansa Business Class DTW to/from so many times. Never flew Thai Airways Business Class on the A350. Flew JAL Business Class before Covid.
    -Love spending hours in lounges. It appears HND lounges are way better than the much shorter connection times in FRA and MUC.
    -Both get me to BKK almost at the same time, early in the morning, immigration should be a breeze.

    Maybe AA forces my hand by canceling either flight lol.

    Leaning towards giving AA a chance here. Mostly because I have not been able to use my AA miles in so long. But I can be easily convinced and am sure Lufthansa will get me to MUC on time to not miss the Thai Airways to BKK.

  12. Halfway through the month and this blog has sold just one credit card. Which matches the number of credit cards sold in July.

    Coffees sold in July: 21
    Coffees sold month to date: 0

    There will be a post this Sunday.

    And most likely announcing a break from blogging, maybe I repeat some olds posts and I will focus on enjoying my time away in Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore. I may post a few pics in Instagram and when I remember I take and post some videos.

    Keeping my baby here is unsustainable. Which was obvious of course but recent banking restrictions is just making it really a loss operation. And I am not even counting my time, sad lol.

  13. Rian here from BKK Pulse. I noticed a few readers finding the site through this post and wanted to come say thanks in person. Seeing others using it to plan their Bangkok time is the best kind of endorsement. And you’re right about sabai sabai; that feeling is half the reason the site exists. There’s always something on in Bangkok, most people just never hear about it. See you in Bangkok!

    1. Thanks for the email and the comment Rian. Love BKK Pulse and I use it myself. And I only link to sites I use and like, period. Maybe that is why I always turn down sponsorship requests…because I don’t think much of the ones reaching out trying to buy me lol.

      See you in Bangkok next week.

  14. I’m confused how long haul trucking is so at risk to AI. Then there is a link to which bridges AI hits. I have GM Supercruise and so far it is pretty good on highways as long as I don’t go through Deadman’s curve in Cleveland or need to exit at an interchange.

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