We bring you more on the Covid-19 overreaction, the best cash back cards, introduce you soon to the new Google debit Card, get on virtual train and national park rides, the best Covid-19 coverage online, all pandemic relief extensions, visit Hong Kong and South Los Angeles, two awesome investing related links, we talk about social media sellouts, awesome photography you have come to expect, the best independent movies, laugh at a music teacher playing her ukulele, Chase tightening business credit apps, I rock a 5k race and lots more freeeeeee!
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I have lots of awesome links for you for to start yet another quarantine or shelter in place or whatever you want to call this we are all going through…
I could turn my blog into a COVID-19 blog and not miss a beat you know…
I loved this article from Behavioral Scientist: Epidemic Humility-Knowing Your Limits in a Pandemic. It will be well worth your time imho…
Frequent expressions of supreme confidence might seem odd in light of our obvious and inevitable ignorance about a new threat. The thing about overconfidence, though, is that it afflicts most of us much of the time. That’s according to cognitive psychologists, who’ve studied the phenomenon systematically for half a century. Overconfidence has been called “the mother of all psychological biases.” [In my field of finance, if I had a dollar for every time some bozo expert predicted something only to be proven wrong again…and again I would not have to whine blogging here for the lack of blog conversions LOL]
…medical statistician Robert Grant tweeted: “I’ve studied this stuff at university, done data analysis for decades, written several NHS guidelines (including one for an infectious disease), and taught it to health professionals. That’s why you don’t see me making any coronavirus forecasts.”
The concept of epistemic humility is useful to describe the difference between these two kinds of character. Epistemic humility is an intellectual virtue. It is grounded in the realization that our knowledge is always provisional and incomplete—and that it might require revision in light of new evidence. Grant appreciates the extent of our ignorance under these difficult conditions; the other characters don’t. A lack of epistemic humility is a vice—and it can cause massive damage both in our private lives and in public policy. [So, what do you call someone who has this epistemic humility? I wish so many geniuses in the current US administration had it!]
And it’s never been more important to learn to separate the wheat from the chaff—the experts who offer well-sourced information from the charlatans who offer little but misdirection. The latter are sadly common, in part because they are in greater demand on TV and in politics. It can be hard to tell who’s who. But paying attention to their confidence offers a clue. People who express themselves with extreme confidence without having access to relevant information and the experience and training required to process it can safely be classified among the charlatans until further notice. If expertise does not protect against overconfidence, what does? Research in fact suggests one simple thing that everyone can do. It is to consider reasons that you may be wrong. If you want to reduce overconfidence in yourself or others, just ask: What are the reasons to think this claim may be mistaken? Under what conditions would this be wrong? Such questions are difficult, because we are much more used to searching for reasons we are right. But thinking through the ways in which we can fail helps reduce overconfidence and promotes epistemic humility. Again, it is fine and good to have opinions, and to express them in public—even with great conviction. The point is that true experts, unlike charlatans, express themselves in a way that mirrors their limitations. All of us who want to be taken seriously would do well to demonstrate the virtue of epistemic humility. [This is great advice!]
Next time you hear from people that we are overreacting and we must open up the economy now…forward them this article and shut them up! We’re not overreacting to the coronavirus.
As Kent State University epidemiologist Tara Smith told me, “It’s the paradox of public health: When you do it right, nothing happens.”
So we are continuing to learn about this disease. CNN’s Chris Cuomo has it and he has been doing his show while quarantining from his basement and then…his wife got it! Think about that for a second…oh, and he does not know how he got infected in the first place. And then one night, he said, he had these intense bizarre dreams. The thing that is really strange is that so many have such different symptoms…heck, some have it and they have no idea! And then I ran across this article with some really strange findings affecting the brain, you have been warned: What does Covid-19 Do to Your Brain. Scientists are racing to figure out why some patients also develop neurological ailments like confusion, stroke, seizure, or loss of smell.
This next article attempts to answer how deadly is Covid-19 compared to seasonal flu, past pandemics, or car crashes? Some of the graphs in this one will shock you!
Any serious attempt to put coronavirus deaths in context by comparing it to some other cause of death in a previous year must acknowledge the marked differences in the Covid-19 trend — most notably, the rapid spike in deaths that is still underway, and the wide range of uncertainty about when it will peak, how high it will peak, and whether it will peak only once. As long as the pandemic is rapidly spreading, these comparisons will be fraught. Perhaps a better way to state the danger posed by the coronavirus is just that we cannot easily compare it to any precedent in recent history. Nor do we need to dispute projections about future deaths to recognize what has happened already. Amid the statistical noise is a powerful signal. The question is whether we choose to see it.
I am going to help with How to Talk to Coronavirus Skeptics. Just be aware that most of them will still vote for Trump, sad lol. But if you insist:
But for people who are resisting, for whatever reason, you have to acknowledge that the resistance is reasonable on some level. Nobody wants to be stuck in their house for the next six months, or possibly longer. Most people like to go out to restaurants, bars, clubs. We like to go to our gym. We like to go to work. We like to not be laid off. I mean, this really sucks. This is a really lousy situation. I think starting with the acknowledgement of the lousiness of it is really important, because then people feel that you’re not invalidating their feelings. You’re recognizing that this is lousy, but denying it doesn’t make it go away. In fact, the opposite: denying it makes it worse, and that’s the argument that I found works with climate change. You say to people, “Yeah, we’re going to have to make some big changes in the way we live, but we can make those changes.”
When this is eventually over, I hope we reassess how we compensate the lower paid essential workers! Visualizing the Occupations With the Highest COVID-19 Risk
I still firmly believe science will save us. I just hope it is not too late lol. Maybe it will be this guy: The Covid Test Lab That Could Save America. But first we need to solve the testing problem! The leader of the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub solved a snake pandemic. Now he’s trying to solve the U.S.’s coronavirus testing problem.
There are great answers to common questions we are all asking these days in this article in the “failing” New York Times: Is the Virus on My Clothes? My Shoes? My Hair? My Newspaper? I now can run and breathe easier, thanks!
Another great link and then I think I better stop and move on to the other sections. I mean, look at this already so far! I lost two email list subscribers over the weekend, WTF! What Have Epidemiologists Learned About the Coronavirus? I think this is a must read…read the whole thing!
MILES & POINTS
HOT CREDIT CARD OFFERS: New: The CitiBusiness AAdvantage Platinum now offers 70k AA miles. There is an offer for the United Explorer card offering 60,000 miles. The IHG Rewards Club card offering 140k points too, highest ever. For a standard workhorse card I recommend the 60k Chase Sapphire Preferred card. For a standard premium card I recommend the 50k Chase Sapphire Reserve card. For a standard 2% cash back card I recommend the Citi Double Cash card. Available with my links. Lets move on!
Andy The Lazy Traveler is back! The Covid-19 State of Mind: We Are Grounded and Cash Is King Again. With a great post once again. We last met at the Hyatt Zilara resort in Cancun in December and we both wish we were back there again…This current situation sure sucks! Great advice on cash back cards. And if you get these cards with my links I will plow the profits back into the blog and hire him to write more guest posts here so go!
This is an excellent resource: Comprehensive List: All Frequent Flyer, Hotel Loyalty & Rental Car Status Extension Policies 2020-2021 (COVID-19 Relief).
I guess this is coming and I hope it is better than what Apple got out: Leaked pics reveal Google smart debit card to rival Apple’s.
Citi added Emirates as a Thank You Network transfer partner. Zzzzzz. As long as they do not have a US legacy airline transfer partner…they will always play catch up to Chase and Amex. This did not stop bloggers from trying to enthusiastically sell numerous Citi travel rewards credit cards.
Virgin Australia is now in administration. Basically, they are bankrupt and expect many changes soon. Brace for more…
We can’t go anywhere for free using our miles and points these days so let’s keep traveling virtually I guess. 10 Scenic National Park Drives Everyone Should Do at Least Once.
Wait, there is more! 13 Virtual Train Rides From Around the World That You Can Experience Right Now.
Wow, photos of Hong Kong’s public fountains from the air.
I had never heard or seen this before in Los Angeles. The Watts Tower. One guy worked on it for 33 years. What a legacy left behind. Same with me, my grandkids will read my TBB blog posts and be so darn proud. I hope, please don’t laugh!
I always read the memos by Howard Marks. Not that I always agree with him but I think they are just great! Here is the latest one: Knowledge of the Future.
Another fantastic set of slides by Mary Meeker: Our New World. Must read regarding our new reality, technology, health care and stuff like that.
ODDZ & ENDZ
Well, lets see it because I am not seeing it! We’ll All Be Social Media Sellouts Soon. This made me lol: Companies are turning to small-time influencers to promote their brands. Will any of us be able to resist the lure of free products and cash? It would at least be nice to realize if they know my blog even exists!
There are some great flicks in this list: The 50 most important American independent movies Lame blogger question would be…which one is your favorite?
You know I am no fun of Trump. Some say I have TDS. I had to google it! Whatever. But this is GOLD! British Writer Pens the Best Description Of Trump I’ve Read. He totally nails it! It will make your day. But if you are a supporter of him…maybe not 🙂
Ok, now it is time to laugh. Music teacher giving a music lesson about online learning. Bwahahahahaha
We are now entering BLOG BUZZ, a section for advanced hobbyists and veterans of this fast imploding hobby and also a section where I go on and on about some stuff that happens in my life because it helps me feel better about myself.
The University of Michigan Big House 5k Race was canceled. So I ran it at the local Cinemark IMAX complex parking lot, it was completely empty! And I lowered my PR 1 minute and 1 second #winnning
When it rains…Chase Tightens Up On Business Credit Card Applications. When I get around to it I could probably insert referral links every time I get to mention a credit card too…maybe I will one day. Until then, I just keep whining #facepalm.
Every week I get an email with stats about my blog. Last week was the lowest traffic ever. I think I am turning out some high quality content here but obviously this does not translate to traffic and conversions. At all. You have no idea how discouraging this is. Actually, it is the WORST thing about blogging…for seven and a half years here. With the corona mega pandemic turning everything upside down…it won’t get better on the conversion front anytime soon. As many blogs have quit or are barely posting any new content these days…something has to give. Full Disclosure: I have been whining like this for years, sad lol! I need to find time to look into newsletter. Or maybe I go to Boarding Area. Now that Rene is no longer there it should be safe 🙂
And I leave you with this…
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